If you talk to Jimmy Reed after seeing the murder site at the pier, and persuade him to tell you about the serial killer,
the serial quest is set to state 11.
Any state >=6 for the serial killer quest triggers a starting condition in Arthurs dialog about Muddy being dead. So the bail jumper quest will fail when you caome back to report that Muddy has left Santa Monica.
I haven't checked it yet, but failure of the bail jumper quest probably also means that the Mudd Hunt quest never gets started...
So either you don't set a quest state with log entry for that, or you have to change the starting condition in Arthur.dlg Line 1006: pc.GetQuestState("Serial") >= 6 and pc.GetQuestState("Serial") < 11
and pc.GetQuestState("Bail Jumper") < 3 and pc.GetQuestState("Bail Jumper") > 0
Tuesday is Soylent Green day.